WHITHER KAVANAUGH?

The day after the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing with Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and, separately, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, much has been written about the event. Here at the Fishhouse this has been a constant topic of conversation. There is not much I can say that hasn't already been said, but there is a line of inquiry I want to follow. 

What are the possible explanations for the discrepancy between the positions of Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh? I will list those I thought of, and please let me know if you have others.

I'll start in the order of the appearances, with Dr. Ford. Here are the possible explanations of her testimony:

F1. Christine was sexually attacked by Brett and is telling the truth.
F2. Christine was sexually attacked by two boys, but it was not Brett and his friend Mark, and she has mis-identified the attackers.
F3. Dr. Ford is mentally unstable and, for whatever reasons, has made up the story and brought it forward to get attention.
F4. Dr. Ford has been paid a very large sum of money (dark money) by one or more wealthy Democrats to make a false accusation in order to stop the ascendency of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. 

And here are the possible explanations for Judge Kavanaugh's testimony:

K1. Brett did not sexually attack Christine and is innocent.
K2. Brett did sexually attack Christine but was so drunk that he did not, and still does not remember the incident. 
K3. Judge Kavanaugh sexually attacked Dr. Ford when they were teenagers, and has been covering it up and lying about it ever since. 

So what do you think is plausible? For Dr. Ford, I would opine that F4 is least plausible, followed closely by F3. F2 is a possibility; however, Dr. Ford is emphatic that she knew and recognized Brett Kavanaugh and Mark Judge. That leaves F1 as the most plausible explanation. 

For Judge Kavanaugh, K1, K2 and K3 are plausible explanations. It seems to me that K3 is the least plausible because it would be so very extreme; however, it is not out of the question. That leaves K1 and K2.

If, in fact, teenage Brett did attack teenage Christine, accepting F1 as the most plausible explanation for Dr. Ford's testimony, K2 is the most likely explanation for Judge Kavanaugh. There are some friends and associates of Brett, when he was a teen and a college student, who have said publicly that he was a heavy drinker and was sometimes incoherent when drunk. Brett's close friend in high school, Mark Judge, was an alcoholic as a teen, and has written one or more books about it. In fact, Mr. Judge referred to a character named "Bart O'Kavanaugh" in his book:

If passing out was part of teenage Brett's drinking routine, and in yesterday's hearing Judge Kavanaugh talked extensively about how he liked beer and drank a lot, then K2 has more support for being the plausible explanation. (In this line of inquiry, I'm not ruling out K3 as the correct explanation, and it would truly be a juicy scandal! And, I feel compelled here to say unequivocally that my thinking and statements in no way minimize the crime of sexual assault.) 

There are a few confirmed facts in this he said - she said case. 

• Dr. Ford took and passed a polygraph test;
• the timing and method of Dr. Ford's accusation are that she first acted anonymously when Judge Kavanaugh was on the list of potential nominees, and she acted in a way to conceal her identity;
• statements by at least three other women about sexual assaults by young Brett Kavanaugh (the statements are fact, the alleged assaults are unproven); 
• statements by friends and associates of young Brett Kavanaugh that he was a heavy, often belligerent and often incoherent drunk as a teen and college student;
• statements by friends of Brett Kavanaugh that he was not a drunk, and did not treat women badly;
• statements by three people named by Dr. Ford as being at the party where she was allegedly attacked that they have no memory of being at such a gathering;
• previous background checks and clearances for Judge Kavanaugh conducted and issued for federal jobs and appointments;
• numerous letters of support and character reference for both Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh. 

It is obvious that an investigation should be undertaken by an impartial entity, the F.B.I., to gather factual information, interview all persons who might have relevant information, and prepare this information for the Senate Judicial Committee to use for further deliberation. Only then will the true explanation have any chance of being known.

Until then, we can only make educated guesses.
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