Tuesday, October 02, 2018
JUDGE KAVANAUGH IS NOT THE PROBLEM
Think about it, the President of the United States is a man who bragged about and has been accused of sexually attacking women, who has mocked persons with disabilities and women who are not model-skinny, who has picked a fight with the Muslim family of a fallen war hero, who accuses the free press of being the "enemy of the people," who in his bigoted way has defined immigrants as murderers and rapists and terrorists, who has initiated policies that result in kidnapping and incarcerating children, whose policies destroy the climate of our planet and make our environment unhealthy for people, who embraces (even "is in love with") dictators and other authoritarians, who has destroyed relationships with our closest friends and allies. It is this man who nominated, and still supports, Judge Brett Kavanaugh for a seat on the Supreme Court.
And the Republican members of Congress are complicit. In their rush to confirm the appointment of Judge Kavanaugh, they have flipped the finger at victims of sexual assault while pretending to understand and listen to these victims and survivors. They patiently, and fearfully, regarding their image, listened to the testimony of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, made declarations of how compelling her testimony was, and moved on to confirm the accused judge without any further consideration. It doesn't seem to matter to them that Kavanaugh has serious flaws that should disqualify him for the Supreme Court seat, let alone from any other position of authority. Trump picked him, they support him, he would be their champion wrecking ball justice who will help undo all liberal decisions and usher in a new age of conservatism in America.
Yes, we all need to hope and act to stop the confirmation of Judge Kavanaugh; but we also need to understand that he is a symptom of a much larger problem. We also need to understand that Donald Trump is also a symptom of the strong anti-democracy current that has been building in American politics since the Reagan era of the 1980's. We will be rid of Trump in 2 or 6 years; we will not be rid of the moneyed interests and voting base that support him. That is the real challenge to our democracy, and we who are to the left of the far-right need to play a long game, not get too distracted by these Kavanaugh-type skirmishes.
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Saturday, September 29, 2018
UPDATE: MY PRIVACY MATTERS
From talking to many of my family and friends, I know that a lot of people are concerned about their privacy on the internet, and about the progress of what has been dubbed "surveillance capitalism." And yet, most people I know are too dependent on, or addicted to Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp (all Facebook-owned and operated), Google, Amazon and other internet "services" to take the steps of unplugging from these corporate behemoths. In the meantime, a number of internet pioneers, including some who have become billionaires, are expressing concerns about where the internet has gotten and is going, and some are taking steps to make corrections.
In the meantime, I have become social network isolated - by not being on Facebook and/or Instagram I am not in the loop with many family members and friends. I still post to this blog and other on-line places, but I know that few people see these things because there are no links to them on Facebook.
I read a lot about the internet, and I do not expect other people to do the same. If interested, there are thousands of articles and books available about the evils of the internet giants. Here is a short blog post about privacy by the Protonmail folks that is worth the time to read as a good summary of concerns.
What will it take for masses of people to leave the surveillance-based internet giants? Social change theory tells us that if influential people make the move, others will follow. Well, I'm not one of the influencers, but I am making the moves.
Here are my latest actions:
email: I am sending a message to my gmail contacts that I am switching my personal email to Protonmail. I will leave my business email at gmail for the foreseeable future.
text messages: I have switched to Signal. Messaging between me and other Signal users is end-to-end encrypted and very secure. signal also has internet-based voice and video calling that I use for calls overseas.
internet browsing: I use the Duck-Duck-Go extension on Apple Safari for my laptop (Macbook) and tablet (iPad), and Duck-Duck-Go is the default browser on my Android phone. (One nice feature on the DDG Android app is that it shows me the trackers it is blocking when I am on the internet; and this is eye-opening: see the images, below, when I browsed to the Portland Tribune).
socializing: I've looked around to find an alternative to the Facebook/Instagram paradigm. There are some out there. I've signed up on MeWe, a service that intentionally does not collect user data, track users, etc. One person in my hundreds of contacts is also on MeWe. I've not used it much, but I will be looking at it more closely, see what kinds of groups exist, and maybe encourage friends and family to check it out. In the meantime, I've started to contact people by text and phone in order to stay in touch. Last year I started a discussion group using the Slack platform. The idea was to have a place where people could have focused discussions about specific topics. Nobody seemed interested.
additional internet privacy: we use a VPN (virtual private network) when on the internet, especially when traveling.
privacy policies and settings: this one is complex and time consuming. Ideally we would read through the privacy policies of every on-line app, software or website we use, and then go through every privacy setting for each of these and set them for maximum privacy. Obviously the vast majority of people don't do this, and simply check "I agree" for everything. We all recently received email messages from many of our provider and app developers that they have new privacy policies; this was a result of new internet rules being in effect for the European Union. I struggle with this issue.
pay for privacy and ad-free use: Some companies and apps offer ad-free service for a fee, instead of using the free version. I choose to pay for certain things, especially if I support the ethics and standards of the company (Protonmail is an example).
Despite all of these efforts, the bottom line is that there is no such thing as complete privacy on the internet, as far as I know, if I want to continue using internet services. And so the question is begged, why do I continue reading about it, trying to find ways to be more private, switching apps and providers? The answer is, it's who I am. I don't like what cyberspace has become, the extent to which it has become commercialized and intrusive, the dangers inherent in thousands of companies knowing everything about me and my daily activities. And so, nevertheless, I persist! If you care to join me, fine; if not, fine.
And thanks for reading.
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Friday, September 28, 2018
WHITHER KAVANAUGH?
The day after the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing with Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and, separately, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, much has been written about the event. Here at the Fishhouse this has been a constant topic of conversation. There is not much I can say that hasn't already been said, but there is a line of inquiry I want to follow.
What are the possible explanations for the discrepancy between the positions of Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh? I will list those I thought of, and please let me know if you have others.
I'll start in the order of the appearances, with Dr. Ford. Here are the possible explanations of her testimony:
F1. Christine was sexually attacked by Brett and is telling the truth.
F2. Christine was sexually attacked by two boys, but it was not Brett and his friend Mark, and she has mis-identified the attackers.
F3. Dr. Ford is mentally unstable and, for whatever reasons, has made up the story and brought it forward to get attention.
F4. Dr. Ford has been paid a very large sum of money (dark money) by one or more wealthy Democrats to make a false accusation in order to stop the ascendency of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
And here are the possible explanations for Judge Kavanaugh's testimony:
K1. Brett did not sexually attack Christine and is innocent.
K2. Brett did sexually attack Christine but was so drunk that he did not, and still does not remember the incident.
K3. Judge Kavanaugh sexually attacked Dr. Ford when they were teenagers, and has been covering it up and lying about it ever since.
So what do you think is plausible? For Dr. Ford, I would opine that F4 is least plausible, followed closely by F3. F2 is a possibility; however, Dr. Ford is emphatic that she knew and recognized Brett Kavanaugh and Mark Judge. That leaves F1 as the most plausible explanation.
For Judge Kavanaugh, K1, K2 and K3 are plausible explanations. It seems to me that K3 is the least plausible because it would be so very extreme; however, it is not out of the question. That leaves K1 and K2.
If, in fact, teenage Brett did attack teenage Christine, accepting F1 as the most plausible explanation for Dr. Ford's testimony, K2 is the most likely explanation for Judge Kavanaugh. There are some friends and associates of Brett, when he was a teen and a college student, who have said publicly that he was a heavy drinker and was sometimes incoherent when drunk. Brett's close friend in high school, Mark Judge, was an alcoholic as a teen, and has written one or more books about it. In fact, Mr. Judge referred to a character named "Bart O'Kavanaugh" in his book:
If passing out was part of teenage Brett's drinking routine, and in yesterday's hearing Judge Kavanaugh talked extensively about how he liked beer and drank a lot, then K2 has more support for being the plausible explanation. (In this line of inquiry, I'm not ruling out K3 as the correct explanation, and it would truly be a juicy scandal! And, I feel compelled here to say unequivocally that my thinking and statements in no way minimize the crime of sexual assault.)
There are a few confirmed facts in this he said - she said case.
- Dr. Ford took and passed a polygraph test;
- the timing and method of Dr. Ford's accusation are that she first acted anonymously when Judge Kavanaugh was on the list of potential nominees, and she acted in a way to conceal her identity;
- statements by at least three other women about sexual assaults by young Brett Kavanaugh (the statements are fact, the alleged assaults are unproven);
- statements by friends and associates of young Brett Kavanaugh that he was a heavy, often belligerent and often incoherent drunk as a teen and college student;
- statements by friends of Brett Kavanaugh that he was not a drunk, and did not treat women badly;
- statements by three people named by Dr. Ford as being at the party where she was allegedly attacked that they have no memory of being at such a gathering;
- previous background checks and clearances for Judge Kavanaugh conducted and issued for federal jobs and appointments;
- numerous letters of support and character reference for both Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh.
Until then, we can only make educated guesses.
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Friday, September 07, 2018
WHAT PRICE WILL THE GOP PAY?
INSKEEP: Does the president strike you, in your interactions with him or the staff around him, as responsible, focused, on target, fit?
RUBIO: Well, he strikes me as Donald Trump, which is - he's not a political figure. He understands and describes issues differently from someone who served 20 years in the Senate would describe them. But he has a pretty clear understanding of what's at stake with China. He has a pretty clear understanding, in the conversations I've had with him, about what's at stake in Venezuela. He has a pretty clear understanding of the risks involved in this engagement with South Korea - North Korea.
INSKEEP: The understanding about North Korea, he proclaimed that the nuclear threat has been taken care of with North Korea, which is, obviously, not true.
RUBIO: Well, but again, that goes back to the nonpolitical guy. And that is someone...
INSKEEP: That's not nonpolitical. It's not true.
RUBIO: No, but let me tell you why - because in his view, he's a negotiator. He's applying his business acumen. And that's why I tell you he wouldn't express himself the way a 20-year senator or a member of the Council of Foreign Relations would. In his mind, I'm a negotiator. And the way to get the other guy to give me more of what I want is to be nice to him. But he is fully aware that North Korea poses a threat. But he's trying to reach a deal. I, personally - in my view, Kim Jong Un doesn't want a deal. And I've said that to him, and I've said it his administration.
INSKEEP: One more thing. I asked, is he fit? You answered, well, he's Donald Trump. I understand that. But is he fit?
RUBIO: I have not personally seen or been told by anybody anything that causes me to believe that he's not fit to serve as president of the United States.
INSKEEP: Are you willing to say, in a positive sense, yes, he is fit?
RUBIO: Based on everything I've seen and known. That doesn't mean I agree with everything he's done or every conclusion he's reached. And that doesn't mean that I would express myself or that he always expresses himself in ways that I would hope a president would. But that doesn't make him unfit. That just makes him different from what I would prefer. And the one - best way I would describe it is I love a lot of the things that he's doing on a lot of public policy. Many of them are things that politicians have been promising to do for a long time and never did. I just wish we could have that without all the other stuff.
If you read the above, you learned that Rubio does not think Trump is unfit to be President, or irresponsible or unfocused, or off target; he is simply Donald trump, not a politician. And as far as saying things that are not true, well, that’s O.K., he isn’t lying because he is a negotiator using his business acumen.
And why does Rubio, and the rest of the GOP, accept Trump because he is Trump? Because Trump is doing a lot of things the GOP likes, things that politicians have been promising for a long time. And what are these things? Well, we all know what they are, they are things that benefit the wealthy donors to the GOP, people and corporations, and therefore keep these GOP politicians in office.
So in Rubio’s view, and the view of the rest of the complicit Congressional Republicans, Trump’s misogyny, bigotry, obstruction of justice, bizarre tweeting, claims that the media is the “enemy of the people,” kidnapping and abuse of immigrant children, elimination of environmental protections, insulting and alienation of our allies, butt-smooching of authoritarians, attacks on U.S. intelligence agencies, collusion with Russia, pulling out of international climate agreements and the nuclear weapon agreement with Iran, and etc. and etc. are simply “Trump being Trump,” a businessman being a businessman! Right, and Putin is just being Putin, and Kim Jung Un is just being Kim Jung Un, and Genghis Khan was just being Genghis Khan!
The GOP will pay a high price for their complicity with Trump and his advisors. Their chickens will come home to roost. Unfortunately, the entire world is paying the price now, and will continue to pay for a long time as a result of Trump and the GOP.
The Republicans in Congress have no shame, and history will not be kind to them. They have been accomplices to a bold attack on the U.S. Constitution and democracy.
Thank you, Marco Rubio, for so clearly showing the world the true colors of the Republican Party.
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Thursday, August 16, 2018
CATHOLIC CHURCH PEDOPHILIA: BRING BACK THE GUILLOTINE
Friday, July 27, 2018
THIS IS A CRY FOR REVOLUTION
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID, OF HELSINKI
- At the recent G7 meeting, he argued that Russia should be reinstated as a member, he bullied our allies, he attacked and mocked Canada’s Justin Trudeau;
- He met with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jung Un, giving Kim great legitimacy, volunteered to end U.S - S. Korean military exercises (much to the surprise of the U.S. military and S. Korea), proclaimed Kim to be very smart and a great guy, and signed a meaningless statement about nuclear weapons that N. Korea appears to have alredy violated;
- He has consistently, since his candidacy, berated and bullied our allies in NATO about money, shrugged off Russia’s military annexation of Crimea (“most people there speak Russian”), downplayed the Russian interference in U.S. elections, and mocked the investigation of collusion between his campaign and Russians;
- He has consistently twitter-attacked and otherwise put down our European allies, while treating Russia with kid gloves;
- He has started a trade war with China and Europe, leaving Russia as a potentially better trading partner for our allies.
Saturday, June 23, 2018
IN MY COUNTRY; IN MY NEIGHBORHOOD
In my country, the government of Donald Trump has a zero tolerance policy for persons who cross the border without permission. These persons are arrested, prosecuted and persecuted. If they happen to have their children with them, the children are “separated” - a kinder word for abduction - and sent away to a detention camp. Yes, detention camps, shameful places from our history. Sometimes the parents are deported back to the place they were escaping, without their children. What cruelty is this?
Crossing the border without permission from the government is a civil crime, a misdemeanor. Violating traffic law is a misdemeanor. Where is the equivalency?
In my neighborhood, the city and county governments have a 100-percent tolerance policy for persons who take over public sidewalks and violate many laws. Having open containers of alcohol and using drugs in public are unlawful. Trespassing is unlawful. Leaving trash everywhere is unlawful. Threatening people is unlawful. These are all misdemeanors. And yet in my neighborhood, all of this is tolerated 100 percent. And the livability of my neighborhood, and the livelihood of the business people in my neighborhood suffer greatly.
In my country, 21st century storm troopers sweep in and swoop up hard-working people who are productive members of their communities and pay their way in the world, but who happen to not have permission to be here. Families are splintered; communities are terrorized by these ice-blooded storm troopers.
In my neighborhood the cops do their best, but the total tolerance policy means that people who break the law every day, who don’t work, don’t pay taxes, don’t vote and are anything but productive members of my community are allowed to continue doing whatever they want to do in public spaces.
What the hell happened to my country? What the hell happened to my neighborhood? 2 + 2 = 5. Up is down. Yes is no. Orwell got it right.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2018
IT'S OFFICIAL, THE DHS AND DOJ ARE TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS
ANN COULTER IS A FECKLESS RUNT (AND SO ARE HER FELLOW TRAVELERS)
Thursday, June 14, 2018
MY MESSAGE TO AG JEFF SESSIONS ABOUT HIS IMMIGRATION POLICIES
Monday, June 11, 2018
THE DONALD AND THE DICTATOR: WHAT DOES THE LEFT DO IF SOMETHING POSITIVE HAPPENS?
The Trump-Kim summit scares me. Trump has stated that he does not need to prepare, he will know within the first minute, based on touch and feel, if Kim is going to make a deal. He has stated that if he senses that Kim is not going to make a deal, he will walk out and not waste time. Oh brother. Let's all keep our fingers crossed.
Yes, absolutely, a denuclearization of the Korean peninsula would be a very good thing. A breakdown of the summit, the lack of any kind of agreement* will be a bad thing. So if Trump has any success, the left has to acknowledge it. In other words, we certainly don't want to celebrate a Trump failure, no matter how bizarre the entirety of this summit has been and is. And a Trump success will be a good lesson in bipartisanship for the left; or, as Mrs. Obama often told us: "They go low, we go high."
I will be watching the news closely.
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* I switched to the word "agreement" instead of the word "deal" because foreign policy is not real estate; one does not make "deals."
Sunday, June 10, 2018
TRUMP:.HATE YOUR FRIENDS, LOVE YOUR ENEMIES
Friday, June 08, 2018
WHO NEEDS TO PREPARE?
How would you feel if this was said by the surgeon who was about to operate on you? Or maybe your lawyer, moments before a huge trial in which you could lose everything? Professional sport players? The contractor about to build your new house?
Don't worry, no professional would ever think that way or say such a thing. And no professional said the above; it was Donald J. Trump at a press conference with Prime Minister Abe of Japan, talking about the meeting with Kim Jong-Un of North Korea next week. WHA??
We need to be worried. Please, someone, don't leave Trump alone in a room with Kim.
And it turns out, according to news reports, that the U.S. National Security Team has not yet met to plan for this summit meeting next week. WHA????
We need to be very, very, very worried!!
Do you know where the nearest bomb shelter is located?
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Sunday, May 27, 2018
I CAN’T WAIT FOR AUTONOMOUS CARS
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
DONALD TRUMP'S BULLY PULPIT
TRUMP, ISRAEL, GAZA: BLAME ALL AROUND
As an American, I am insulted, ashamed, embarrassed and angered by the opportunism of the administration of Donald J. Trump. As a Jew, I am insulted, angry and once again not supportive of the opportunistic actions of the Benjamin Netanyahu government of Israel. And as a human being, I am angered by the callous opportunism of Hamas, and greatly saddened by the deaths and injuries of Gazans.
The Trump move of the American embassy to Jerusalem was not part of a comprehensive foreign policy plan; it is evident that the Trumpsters have no such plan. The embassy move was both a ploy by Trump to please elements of his evangelical Christian base, who, as one attendee said, have "prayed for 20 years" for this action, as well as an attempt to burnish his own reputation in his own eyes. The move was also a strong boost for Netanyahu from his best new friend, Donald Trump. (Have they created a new monster named Netrumpyahoo?)
As always, the politics and situations in the Middle East, and in this case, Israel and the Palestinian Territories, are complex and demand an objective view to be understood. Peace between Israelis and Palestinians remains elusive, and the conflict has long been a political football kicked around by all sides. What was evident May 14 was the raw opportunism from the three major players: the United States, Israel, and Hamas.
The way the embassy opening was staged is an insult and an outrage. The religious leader (Robert Jeffress) invited to give the opening prayer at the dedication of the American Embassy in Jerusalem is an evangelical Christian who once said that Judaism, along with Mormonism, Islam and Hinduism, is one of the religions "that lead people to an eternity of separation from God in Hell." Jeffress is one of Trump's spiritual advisers, and was referred to as a "religious bigot" in a tweet by Mitt Romney yesterday.
The Trump administration also had John Hagee, founder of Christians United for Israel, deliver a benediction at the ceremony. Hagee is another religious extremist who has stated that Hitler was part of a "divine plan from God" to return the Jews to the Land of Israel, and has also argued that Jews are to blame for their own persecution over the centuries because they have not converted to Christianity.
The fact that Trump invited these bigots to spew their brand of Christianity at an embassy opening - whatever happened to the separation of church and state - is bad enough; the fact that Netanyahu had no problem with known anti-Semites speaking is even more insulting and egregious. But this is how Netrumpyahoo rolls!
Netanyahu gave a victory speech. Sure, it makes sense for embassies of other nations to be in the same city as the government institutions of the host country; however, Jerusalem is not a normal situation, under international law. No other country (except Italy) has its embassy or consulate in Jerusalem; they are all in Tel Aviv and surrounding locations. Trump's action was designed to support and polish the tarnished reputation and standing of Netanyahu, as well his own. The embassy move is not part of a larger policy or plan, and it is at its core a very cynical action. In announcing the move, Trump made no mention of the Palestinian Authority, and the fact that their goal is that Jerusalem will be their capitol. The Trump action simply erased any hopes in the minds of Palestinians that the United States can be trusted, and can be counted as a partner at the table for future peace negotiations.
There is no doubt in my mind that Netanyahu represents the Israeli factions that consider all of the West Bank (and probably, eventually Gaza) as part of the real Israel (Judea and Sumaria), and have no intention giving any of it to Palestinians as a Palestinian state. This is why the Netanyahu government continues to build and expand Jewish settlements in the Occupied Territories. This is why Trump moving the U. S. embassy to Jerusalem, a contested city, is a great victory.
And then there is Hamas. What presumably started as a non-violent series of demonstrations by people in Gaza to highlight their losses of family land and homes, following the war between Arabs and Jews when Israel was declared a nation 70 years ago, was taken over by Hamas for violent purposes. Hamas officials have stated that a majority of the Gazans killed by Israeli troops were Hamas members. The story that is emerging is that Hamas fighters were trying to hide within the large crowd of demonstrators, hoping that, if and when the demonstrators were able to penetrate the border fence, these armed fighters could rush in and try to kill or capture Israelis.
Hamas urged the crowds to rush the border fence, knowing full well that many would be injured or killed. The dead would then be hailed as martyrs and heroes. Hamas is a terrorist organization. It has plunged the people of Gaza into a condition of poverty, joblessness, poor education and health care, and severely restricted travel, in a territory with usually sealed borders. I don't think the Israeli blockade came first; it is clear that the constant drumbeat of terrorism on the part of Hamas provoked the closed border and restricted imports into the Gaza strip.
Palestine/Israel is a complicated place and an extremely complex set of political realities. No involved party is totally right; no involved party is totally wrong - they all share blame for the current situation. It is easy to criticize Israel every time it defends itself or its borders, and some criticisms are justified. But to simply lay the blame for the constant string of violence on one player, Israel, is to be a lazy thinker and knee-jerk reactor.
The Trump move of the American embassy to Jerusalem did not cause the Gaza demonstrations, but it did contribute. The cynicism and opportunism rampant in the Trump, Netanyahu and Hamas administrations has created a higher level of distrust, anger, and violence, as well as pushing the prospect of a peaceful settlement between neighbors much less likely.
A pox on all of their houses!
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WHO ARE THE REAL SUPERHEROES?
But a simple fact kept nagging at me: this is not reality, it is fake. I could not help thinking, throughout this action-packed movie, who the real superheroes are.
Last night we saw a movie about a real superhero - Ruth Bader Ginsburg! The movie, Notorious RBG, is a low-budget documentary about a physically diminutive, soft-spoken woman with the mind and fortitude that outshines any Avenger. And interestingly, the film about a Supreme Court Justice is in the top 10 on the box office charts. Perhaps the popularity of Justice Ginsburg says something about the mood of Americans; we need real superheroes at a time when our country and many others in the world are under assault by narrow-minded, greedy, power-seeking and murderous villains - in our own governments.
Put Notorious RBG on your list of films to see. It will make you feel good to know that a real superhero, one who actually wears a costume - black robe with lace or often-interesting collar - has our backs, and refuses to give up the fight for truth, honesty, justice and the rule of law.
Look, up on the bench, it's a small Jewish woman, it's a black-robed goddess, it's....it's....NOTORIOUS RBG!!
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
TRUMP'S TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE NEW IRAN DEAL
President Donald Trump has demonstrated, once again, that keeping a promise to his base is more important than keeping the world safe. By pulling the United States out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, Trump has plunged the world into a more unsafe condition than it already was. Below, in my opinion, are some major problems with Trump's action:
- the United States violated the terms of the agreement, not Iran;
- the United States acted against the input and desires of its closest allies who also signed the agreement;
- the United States demonstrated that it cannot be trusted to live up to an agreement (an especially important point in regard to the upcoming talks with North Korea);
- the United States has, once again, demonstrated that it is no longer the leading power in the world, but instead a nativist, self-serving nation;
- the United States has handed Iran an opportunity to start developing nuclear weapons again;
- the United States has elevated, once again, the use of military intervention against Iran;
- the United States has put Israel in even greater danger than it is already in regarding Iran;
- numerous companies, including some in the United States, will need to end their business with and in Iran;
- this action possibly makes Iran even more dangerous than before.
The JCPOA was not a perfect deal; a fact acknowledged by all of the nations that signed it. It does not address the Iranian development of ballistic missiles, it does not limit Iran's militaristic moves for hegemony in the Middle East (think Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.), and it does not address Iran's sponsorship of global terrorism. What the JCPOA did was to put the Iranian nuclear weapon program on hold for a decade or more, thereby eliminating the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran on Israel or other nations.
Trump promised his base, during his campaign and as president, that he would get the United States out of the "terrible, horrible, stupid, terrible, worst deal ever, ever, ever" (some of us doubt he has read the JCPOA). His idea of pulling out of the JCPOA was not, however, supported by some of his major advisors, including then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson or Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. They argued that it would be a very bad move to pull out of the deal, and that a better course of action would be to negotiate with our European allies and the Chinese and Russians (all signatories to the JCPOA) to push Iran into further negotiations to address the important issues left out of the deal.
But Trump did not like the advice from members of his Cabinet. He fired Tillerson; Mattis is still hanging on. He also replaced career diplomats in the State Department who were the leads on policy for Iraq and Iran and put in a political appointee and Trump loyalist, Andrew Peek, to be in charge of these areas of State Department responsibility. Peek is a hawk, and agrees with Trump's decision on the JCPOA. Peek has no prior diplomatic experience, and is not an expert on Iran or Iraq. Trump also brought in John Bolton, an ultra-hawk, as National Security Advisor. With these men, and others of their ilk onboard, Trump has the pseudo-expert cover he needs for his actions.
How this all turns out is anyone's guess. Trump will impose new, tough sanctions on Iran, so what will happen in regard to European companies that continue to do business in Iran? Will the other signatories to the JCPOA continue to support the deal, and try to isolate and work around the United States? Will the Iranians give in under withering new sanctions, and suddenly play nice? Perhaps Iran will restart its nuclear enrichment program, under the excuse that the United States violated the JCPOA and, therefore, it is no longer a valid agreement. There are many possible scenarios that could unfold, and I think the bad ones outnumber the good ones.
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Monday, May 07, 2018
STORMY: TOO MANY WEATHER REPORTS
Will this bring Donald Trump to his knees? Not likely.
The Daniel's (or Clifford, her real name) lawsuit is against Trump's lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen, and claims that the non-disclosure agreement she signed was invalid because Donald Trump had not signed it. The reason for the suit, I assume, is so that Stormy can freely talk about her alleged affair with Donald Trump, and certainly profit handsomely from it. She has recently filed another law suit against Trump for defamation of character, based on one or more of his tweets about her. There is some speculation that the payoff to Stormy might be a violation of campaign finance law; however, this sounds like a bit of a stretch.
And so we see Stormy and/or her lawyer in the news, on the TV, in the comedy news shows and etc. every day. Stormy Daniels, pornography star and producer - now often called "adult film star" - has become normalized. She has become very famous, and will certainly reap huge gobs of money from this moment of fame. Will her lawyer, Michael Avenatti, bring down the POTUS? I would be surprised.
This whole Stormy Daniels story is, in my humble opinion, no more than an erotic side show that distracts us from the real news. There are so many more important things to think about and spend media time on than the alleged fornication and other likely sex acts engaged in by two people, no matter who they are. The negative effects of the Trump administration on the United States and the world are serious, and we all need to pay attention. Shame on the news media for this undue focus on this tawdry story. It gets them eyeballs, but not much else.
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